Resources · Market Intel

When to lock. When to float. When to act.

PDR monitors forward curves across all 17 deregulated electricity markets and natural gas pipelines daily. Our market intelligence informs every procurement recommendation we make — and we share it directly with clients.

What we monitor

Four data streams that drive commercial energy procurement timing.

NYMEX natural gas futures

Henry Hub prompt-month and 12-month strip. Seasonal storage reports, production data, and LNG export flows that move the curve.

ISO electricity forward prices

On-peak and off-peak forward prices at major hubs: ERCOT HB North, PJM West, PJM AEP Dayton, NI Hub, Mass Hub, NYISO Zone A/G/J.

Basis differentials

Local pipeline and LDC basis spreads versus Henry Hub. Regional supply/demand imbalances and pipeline capacity constraints that drive local price divergence.

Capacity auction results

PJM RPM and ISO-NE ICAP clearing prices. Capacity costs are set by annual forward auctions and can add $10–$40/MWh to all-in commercial rates depending on zone.

PDR Market Brief
Monthly market update. Free for clients and prospects.

One email per month covering: forward curve movement, seasonal factors, capacity auction updates, and PDR's procurement timing recommendation for each major ISO. Written for commercial energy buyers — no jargon, no filler.

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Sample topics

Representative topics covered in the PDR Market Brief.

The following are illustrative examples of the kinds of market analysis we publish. Actual content is updated monthly based on current conditions.

Storage surplus is compressing near-term gas prices — but the winter strip tells a different story

Working gas in storage is running above the 5-year average following a mild shoulder season, putting downward pressure on prompt-month NYMEX. However, the Dec–Feb strip is pricing in normal winter demand and LNG export volumes that didn't exist in prior reference years. Fixed-price buyers locking 12-month terms are capturing near-term surplus without taking on winter strip risk.

Solar growth is reshaping the midday price curve in ERCOT — what it means for commercial buyers

Installed solar capacity in Texas has grown substantially, pushing midday real-time prices negative on high-generation days. For buyers on index structures, this is suppressing daytime costs but amplifying evening ramp exposure. Fixed-price products increasingly price in a "duck curve" premium. Buyers with flexible process loads are best positioned to capture index downside.

PJM's RPM auction cleared at elevated levels — capacity costs will rise for delivery year 2026/27

The PJM Base Residual Auction for the 2026/27 delivery year cleared significantly above prior years as plant retirements outpaced new entry. Capacity costs account for $10–$30/MWh of all-in electricity rates in PJM markets. Buyers currently on index contracts should request capacity cost projections from their supplier before choosing between fixed and passthrough structures at renewal.

Timing guidance

A simplified framework for when to lock vs. float your commercial energy rate.

These are general market signals — not personalized advice. Contact PDR for a recommendation tailored to your load, market, and risk profile.

Lock now signals
  • Forward prices are at or below 12-month average
  • Storage is below the 5-year average heading into winter
  • Your current contract is expiring in 90 days or less
  • Budget cycle requires price certainty for the fiscal year
  • Capacity auction results indicate higher future capacity costs
  • You've been on a holdover or month-to-month rate for more than 60 days
  • Basis differentials in your local market are at seasonal lows
Consider floating / waiting signals
  • Forward prices are significantly above long-run average
  • Storage is well above the 5-year average (natural gas)
  • New pipeline or generation capacity is expected to relieve local constraints
  • Weather outlook suggests moderate demand for the upcoming season
  • Your existing contract has multiple months remaining at a favorable rate
  • You have operational flexibility to curtail during high-price periods
  • Index pricing has been consistently below fixed for 6+ months in your market
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